Transcript of the above video:

As the title of this video suggests, and it is a topic on many lips here in the expat community, is the topic of “Wow, it looks like foreigners may actually be able to own Thai property, own land in Thailand, specifically residential”. Now as a preface to this video, a lot of, I hesitate to say there's a misinformation, I don't think anybody's intentionally out there, I really don't like the use of the term anymore, misinformation, dis-information. There's information, there's data and how you analyze it, that's on you but I do have to say there seems to be a lot of presumptions and assumptions being made out there right now with regard to this overall issue at a time when quite honestly it's very much not a well settled development. We're not in a well settled conclusion on this and I'll explain why here in a minute. 

So first of all, we're going to go over to the Pattaya Mail, pattayamail.com, the article is titled: Foreigners can buy 1,600 square meters residential land in Pattaya, Bangkok. It's not so much a critique of the actual body of this article so much as sort of the tone of it, that it's like this foregone conclusion that this thing is done, it's a done deal, this is now possible. That's just not true and in fact I think there is a lot of nuances going into whether or not this does come to fruition and if so how it does, if it is actually going to be something people are going to be able to use broadly. That said, it is not a critique on the Pattaya Mail. It is just I have seen this a lot, because of the way it is put out people think that, oh wow this is happening, this is occurring, this is being promulgated. As we'll get into in a moment not so much but I want to quote directly: "The Thai Cabinet on 25th October 2022 approved the Interior Ministry's proposal allowing foreigners to hold land ownership for up to one rai (around 1,600 sqm) for residential purposes. The proposed scheme aims to stimulate," again and even their language, it is not incorrect, it is sort of the tone. Again they mention, this is "the proposed scheme", it is still proposed. Quoting further: "The proposed scheme aims to stimulate the country's investment and economy by attracting foreigners to Thailand, creating more investment." Yeah, so I think that is probably true, although as I will get into in maybe a little bit more my analysis on this at the end, I don't actually think if this goes through it will bring in just oodles of money to Thailand in terms of property development. Yeah, it will bring in some but I don't think it'll be a huge amount especially in the short term, and over the long term I do think that there are significant causes of concern for Thailand should this policy be promulgated. I'll get into that in a bit. In any event, just kind of on this assumption that this is all kind of locked in, very much not the case as evidenced by a recent article from the Bangkok Post, bangkokpost.com, the article is titled: Govt stands by land sales to foreigners. Again the tone is it's like yeah this is happening but when you get into the meat and potatoes of it, it's not so cut and dried. Quoting directly: "The Government has defended a Bill to allow foreigners categorized under four specific groups to apply for permission to buy up to one rai of land on the condition they invest at least 40 million Baht for at least 3 years. The Bill is simply", you see this is interesting, the Bill, the Bill, this isn't a law, this is just processing right now. Quoting further: "The Bill is simply an amendment to the Ministerial regulation that has been in existence since 2002, said Government Spokesman Anucha Burapachaisri." Then they kind of go into some information about who is going to be eligible for this. As we have discussed, it is primarily occurring within the BOI and it seems sort of pertain to these sort of long-term resident visas, so-called, not actually long-term resident visas, they don't provide residency sometimes called 10-year visas, not really 10 years visas, sort of a five and five thing. They have also got some other issues associated with them which we have discussed at length in other videos on this channel, most noticeably things like volunteering for tax audit here in Thailand and some stuff like that. But again, quoting further as to the eligibility on the land issue, I am quoting: "High wealth individuals; well-to-do pensioners; work from Thailand professionals and highly skilled professionals or specialists, are the specific groups being courted, he said." Quoting further: "The Cabinet agreed with the proposal at its weekly meeting on Tuesday, and the Bill is now being reviewed by the Council of State, the Government's legal arm, he said." So again, legality on this is not a foregone conclusion so sort of, kind of the equivalent I guess of like the Attorney General's Office in this context with respect to like reviewing Bills being proposed by the Administration in the United States or maybe even the Office of Legal Counsel within the US apparatus would be kind of analogous to who's looking at this right now. And again, it remains a Bill and I will get to that in a moment. Quoting further: "In practice, these potential foreign investors will have to first meet the minimum 40-million-Baht investment requirement before they can apply for permission to buy land of at most 1 rai (1,600 m²) for residential purposes in Bangkok, Pattaya City, as well as other municipalities and zones specified as residential areas under the target city's planning laws, he said." So again, highly restricted. It's not going to be just, “Oh, you can go and buy a rai of land wherever you want, or a house wherever you want”. I suspect if this comes to fruition, which I am not certain is a foregone conclusion, but I suspect there's probably going to be like specific zones, probably Moo Baans, housing developments, where foreigners can buy. Quoting further: "The scheme," again it is a scheme, it is not yet in place, "The scheme will be in effect for 5 years after publication in the Royal Gazette." Then the next question is what happens after that? Quoting further: "Such land ownership can still always be revoked in case the landowner breaks the conditions of the Ministerial regulation." Yeah, as we have discussed before, it appears BOI is doing this under certain provisions accorded to them that really it seems to me the spirit of which were promulgated at a time when it was thought that these foreign land holding provisions, sort of concessions, were kind of in conjunction with like major industrial and major investment here in Thailand; things under the BOI, major projects of that nature. That was always my understanding some 15 years being out here that those kind of limited exemptions to the foreign landholding requirement had primarily to do with like major projects and that was why they were making the concessions. As we will get into here in a moment that is even more to it. Quoting further: "The Pheu Thai Party, meanwhile, says it opposes the plan to allow eligible foreigners to own land, saying it would not truly benefit the economy or Thais." Quoting further: "The 2002 Government led by the Thai Rak Thai party, an earlier incarnation of the Pheu Thai party passed the regulation on foreign land ownership in 2002," and I didn't know this, "because it had to meet the International Monetary Fund's debt repayment terms following the 1997 financial meltdown."

So as anybody knows, the history of the IMF and I don't mean to be a little bit sharp or maybe a little bit critical of IMF policy but IMF is not the favourite entity of countries around the world that begin having financial problems because IMF will come in and impose a lot of stringent requirements on that country and will even impose, quite honestly try to impose or encourage the imposition let's say, of certain things that locals would find maybe not to be in their own best interest. A perfect example of this would be a land-holding law in Thailand and I suspect Thais were not all together on board. I think it was Robert Kiyosaki out there on YouTube or somebody like that who said IMF stands for “I Am Effed”, you know if you are a country and you have to call in the IMF, I'm effed! Like I think Britain had to do it back in like the 70s or the early 80s whatever it was; it's never fun. Frankly I really have issues with the whole notion that the IMF made Thailand do this in the first place under that particular law. I don't know what was exactly going on at the time. I am probable going to do some research on it, now that I have gotten in to it just to kind of see exactly what was going on but all of this seems to me to be a little bit suspicious. I have made another video on here. I know notwithstanding the fact I was born a foreigner, I have naturalized, I am a Thai citizen, I do have concerns about any foreigners in Thailand owning real property, owning land and again I don't see how this is going to be like a huge boon in the short term, that it is just going to like completely right the ship coming off COVID and all of the economic devastation that that caused. So on the one hand, I don't really see how it is going to be some magic bullet that is going to that's going to save us all from this thing, I really don't see that and in fact policy wise I see I see a lot of other policies being discussed out there and proposals which have come online which I think are far more likely to sustainably boost Thailand's economy rather than this. The other thing to think about is not the immediate term in my opinion and maybe this is me talking more as a Thai but in the short term, I don't really see this being a huge mover of the economic needle but in the long term I could see this having substantially negative impact on Thailand. I mean imagine if a number of foreigners over time begin buying up Thai land and become well they become quite dominant in a particular area and they are kind of rooted by ownership of Thai real estate, I can see, I am not saying that that it's a foregone conclusion, that that is a bad thing, but what I am saying is it is cause for pause, cause for concern. I do think under these circumstances and not to get too political here, I think Pheu Thai brings up a good point that this should be looked at much, much more in detail and I think Thais should really think about it. Okay that's my rant as far as me being sort of a Thai.

For foreigners again I don't think this is a foregone conclusion. The Press is talking about this like it's almost already happened. It hasn't. This thing has yet to be promulgated; there is clear opposition to it. I think generally speaking the mood in Thailand while you may be able to get behind it in a limited sense, a movement like this, I don't really think that when most Thais sit down and kind of think about it, that they are really going to be overly positive toward this. So I am not saying I know where this is going to end up but what I will say is, I don't think it is a foregone conclusion it is just going to be an easy thing for foreigners to come in and buy real property any time soon.