Transcript of the above video: 

Yeah, there is a lot of talk out there right now about this whole Trade War, Trump's back blah, blah, blah. Okay, first of all look in the last go around to this, I think if anything I'm not going to say Thailand weathered like better, worse, we got through it. Thailand has got a relationship with the United States. I love that line, I keep thinking of it every time people ask me about the Thai-American Treaty relationship which goes back, our diplomatic relationship goes back like 200 years when we first started talking. We have had a Treaty for like 191 years now but every time I think of Thai-American relationships, I always think of The Sopranos where they say The Sopranos in New York have long standing ties. They say that over and over - "longstanding ties". Well, the Americans and the Thais have long standing ties, no pun intended. What is that? A double entendre, alliteration, pun? The whole thing. In any event, the point I am trying to make with regard to this is there is maybe going to be some hyperbole out there about like America and Thailand, and look last time if I recall correctly going back three or four years ago whatever it was, I remember there was a thing involving rubber bands where Thailand had to be more competitive in terms of the US in terms of rubber bands because there was some kind of subsidy or something associated with that at the time. Yeah, people that were in the rubber band and the rubber industry and the rubber sphere, that meant a lot I'm sure, and I'm not trying to belittle any of that, okay. These are serious times; these are serious issues, but it's important to point out the relationship, okay. The Americans and the Thais are not just some willy-nilly bilateral relationship. It goes back a long time. I've talked about this at length in other videos sometimes. I oftentimes liken Thailand and the USA to Wyatt Earp and Doc Holliday from the old movies - Tombstone and Wyatt Earp the Movie, and then you go back and watch other stuff and then you read about those guys - Those are real guys. I'm from Kansas, Doc Holliday and Wyatt Earp went through Kansas so did Wild Bill Hickok and others. 

That said, the point I'm trying to make with this is it is important to keep things in context regardless of the hyperbole. Yes, there may be certain sectors that could see some acute transition as we move forward, but I don't think it's going to be across the board. I don't think it's going to be a mass event where we are going to see massive turbulence and problems with the US. Our relationship just isn't that way. It's never been that way. It's always a pretty chilled out, "hey, we're friends kind of thing". That said, these trade issues do pop up. Now I expect what will probably happen is Thailand will benefit in the aggregate as time goes on, if for no other reason than we are on pretty good terms with the United States, China clearly is not. There's always going to be fallout from that and I expect it will probably auger to Thailand's favour. Greater Southeast Asia, clearly Vietnam may benefit from this. Again, it's just kind of the nature of the situation we are in.

That said, I thought of making this video after reading a recent article from the Bangkok Post, bangkokpost.com, the article is titled: PM in talks with committee on how to handle Trump. I love the "how to handle Trump". It's like, don't think of it like that. First of all I don't like the headlines and how that's put. When you read the article, no, the Prime Minister had a meeting regarding trade with her Ministers, as she should; that's her job, okay. Now this notion of 'handling Trump', I didn't get the impression when I read that article, and I urge those who are watching this video, go read that article for yourself, I didn't get the impression that that was what the Thais were trying to do. What I got the impression was is they understand this Administration may have some more stringent policies regarding trade. They want to talk about that as they should. I feel great about that as a Thai quite frankly. That said, quoting directly: "Thailand is not only at risk of stiffer tariffs, but it will also encounter an indirect impact from the US-China trade war that will cause Chinese firms to change their shipping routes by exporting more products to Southeast Asia." Well again, stiffer tariffs. How much stiffer tariffs? How much of the economy is it going to impact? As I mentioned, last time there was a thing on rubber bands which I'm sure for the people in the rubber band industry, that was acute change. They saw something really shift there. Greater economy stuff, I mean was it that big a deal? I don't particularly know, but I didn't feel like it was that big a deal at the time, okay. 

The only point I'm trying to make with regard to this is one) let's maybe tone down the hyperbole on the tariffs, especially within the US-Thai Treaty relationship. As we all know, it's just a special relationship here in Thailand. Us Americans get certain benefits here that other nationalities quite frankly do not, including being able to run our own businesses and things and own them 100%. I benefited from that before I became a Thai; it's a real benefit to Americans. That bilateral relationship is there. It's going to continue to be there, especially to outsiders, don't forget that. Wyatt Earp and Doc Holliday ain't going anywhere. 

Now that said, there may be some internal kind of I don't know, negotiations on some of this trade stuff; I expect there may be some recalibrations all right. But that said, as noted in the latter half of that excerpt, I expect this is going to redound tremendously to Thailand's benefit. Quite frankly, I'm thankful for Mr. Trump's policies in the first Administration that resulted in benefits to Thailand and Southeast Asia as a result of similar circumstances then. So hopefully moving forward this will be overall beneficial to Thailand, and I hope any sort of, on the micro level, acute issues with transition are worked out as smoothly as possible. That being said, we will certainly keep you updated on this channel as the situation evolves.