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Could Prior Thai Government Cannabis Policy Have Resulted in "7% Contraction in Foreign Arrivals"?

Transcript of the above video: 

As we are starting to see this new Government under new Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul being installed, I think it is interesting, we need to kind of look back and look at frankly in my mind, the things that went wrong in the prior Government. And one of the big ones that I think was just a massive, both a massive, it was a very negative move from a policy standpoint as well as politically. I don't think it was a good idea on Pheu Thai's part to make the moves that they made basically with regard to Cannabis frankly, I just don't think it was. And as discussed in prior videos, there was huge political backlash to it and it also didn't make sense especially when you look at the fact that Thailand was really and is now, I think with this sort of if you will rejection of that Government - which I think the last vote however you want to look at it in terms of whether it is a minority Government or not - 311 votes were cast in the Parliament for Anutin and this Cabinet to be installed. So that to my mind was a pretty good-sized rejection of the prior government which was only able to muster 257 votes for the largely non-partisan issue of getting the budget passed. So to my mind, that was pretty telling. 

Now that said, I think one of the big things that should be reversed was the really arbitrary and capricious effectively attempt at cracking down if you will, although without any legal authority as I have discussed in other videos, by the prior Government against Cannabis, but also I think it is important to look at the possible ramifications that those policy changes have made in real terms, especially in the tourism sector. 

And I thought of that when reading this recent article from the Bangkok Post, bangkokpost.com, the article is titled: Thai hoteliers say, 'inflexible land tax a burden'. Now the thrust of this video goes in different direction. I made a video contemporaneously with this one where I discussed both issues pertaining to land as well as Tax in Thailand, how that may impact the foreign community. But that said, this little excerpt I thought was telling. Quoting directly: "The robust tourism outlook anticipated for Thailand's upcoming high season is insufficient to offset the 7% contraction in foreign arrivals so far this, year says the Thai Hotels Association. Many hotels failed to make it profit during the low season." And I am going to stop quoting there. Those data points are really relevant, because if you go back a year ago into 2024, I was making videos where they were starting to call the “low season” the "Green Season" because they were seeing people stay in Thailand; they were seeing more people coming to Thailand during the supposed low season because they were coming for Cannabis. They were coming because of the change in policy and laws regarding Cannabis in Thailand, and it was creating a new sort of if you will, a new area of demand, a new, I don't know how to put it, a new pot if you will of demand. There was more demand for tourism in Thailand a year ago compared to this past low season which arguably we are still in but slowly coming out of it. I always look at Canadian Thanksgiving as where I view the beginning of high season and then from there, we start to see all the foreigners coming in and then it sort of tapers off late February into March, and then we go back into low season. Although there is sort of a for lack of a better term, dead cat bounce if you will associated with, which is sort of a financial term, associated with Thai New Year. We often see a jump, a spike in demand for tourism during Thai New Year and then we really go into the doldrums in May, June, July which we just came through, and there has been a notable dearth if you will of tourists here, and I think part of it was people were kind of well "what is going on with Cannabis?" The Government is kind of saying these things. The reality on the street was another one because there really wasn't any Law promulgated for any legal basis for really cracking down or clamping down on Cannabis matters.

As discussed in other videos and as we have seen anecdotally and from comments made by the incoming Government, it does not look like that arbitrariness and capriciousness is going to continue, if anything at least for the next four months, and likely into the next Government, we will probably see a more positive attitude toward Cannabis moving forward if for no other reason than I think people saw that it was amazing political blunder and we have also seen the negative impact now. Again, now again 7% contraction in terms of foreign arrivals. I have to imagine at least a few points that percentage are directly attributable to what people perceive to be a new turn on Cannabis Policy here in Thailand. Hopefully this will improve moving forward and we will certainly keep you updated on this channel as the situation evolves.